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贝壳研究院:海外金融市场动荡,中国房地产受波及不大

1评论 2020-03-20 12:23:10 来源: 游资是怎么抓涨停的?

  核心结论:对国内经济和房地产不应悲观。

  1.YOUYUGUONEIWAIJINRONGSHICHANGGUANLIANDUBUGAO,HAIWAIJINRONGSHICHANGDEBUWENDINGDUIGOUFANGZHEXUQIUZHIJIEYINGXIANGBUDA。

  2.YOUYUGUONEIJIATINGZICHANJIEGOUPIANHAOZHONGFANGCHANQINGGUPIAO,JIASHANGGUONEIGUSHICHUYUDIWEI,JIBIANGUONEIJINRONGSHICHANGSHOUDAOYINGXIANG,YEBUHUIYANZHONGYINGXIANGJIATINGZICHANFUZHAIBIAO。GUONEIJUMINGAISHANXINGHUANFANGXUQIUZHUYAOQUJUEYUZICHANZHIHUAN,DUIWAIBURONGZIDEYILAIBUGAO。

  3.RUGUOJINRONGFENGXIANYANHUAWEIQUANQIUJINGJIWEIJI,GUONEISHOURUSHOUYINGXIANG,HUIYINGXIANGGOUFANGXUQIUDEZENGSU,DANFANGDICHANZONGTIDEGUIMORENGRANBIJIAODA。

  4.GUONEIFANGDICHANSHICHANGJUYOUJIAOQIANGDEXUQIUKONGJIANHECHONGZUDEZHENGCECHUBEI,HAOWUYEHAOFANGZIDEXUQIUHUIGENGDUO。DUANQISHICHANGXUQIUDUANZHENGZAIYOULIFUSU。

  JINRILAI,SHOUYIQINGJIDENGDUOYINSUYINGXIANG,HAIWAIJINRONGSHICHANGJIELIANFASHENGGUJIADAFUXIADIESHIJIAN,QUANQIUJINRONGWEIJIBAOFADEFENGXIANYUELAIYUEDA,ZHEIHUIDUIZHONGGUODEFANGDICHANSHICHANGZAOCHENGSHENMEYINGXIANGMA?

  一、海外金融市场风险对国内居民购买力影响较弱

  HAIWAIJINRONGSHICHANGDONGDANGZHIJIEYINGXIANGLIANGBUFENREN,YIBUFENSHIZAIHAIWAIPEIZHIJINRONGZICHANDEZHONGGUOREN,LINGYIBUFENSHIDASUANZAIGUONEIGOUFANGDEWAIGUOREN。WAIGUORENZAIJINGNEIGOUFANGSHOUDAOYANGEXIANZHI,RENSHUJIDI,KEYIHULVEBUJI。HAIWAIGUSHIDADIEHUIYINGXIANGHAIWAIJINRONGZICHANCHIYOURENDEZHANGMIANCAIFU,JIERYINGXIANGQIXIAOFEI,DANZHEIBUFENRENQUNWEIHAIWAICHIGUYUANGONG,SHULIANGSHAO,DUIGUONEIFANGDICHANSHICHANGDEYINGXIANGJIAOXIAO。

  HAIWAIJINRONGSHICHANGWEIJIDUIGUONEIJIATINGYINGXIANGDEJIANJIETUJINGSHIZHONGGUOJINRONGSHICHANG,DANZHONGGUOJINRONGSHICHANGYUHAIWAIXIANGHUFENGBI,ZHONGGUODEJINRONGZHENGCEYIWOWEIZHU,HAIWAIGUZAINANYIDUIGUONEIDEJINRONGSHICHANGZAOCHENGYINGXIANG。MEIGUJINGLILESHINIANNIUSHI,CUNZAIGUZHIPAOMO,ZHEICIXIADIESHIYOUYIQINGDENGYINFADEDINGBUTAOTUO,YALIJUDA。AGUZEXIANGFAN,JIBENSHIDIBUPAIHUAI,JISHIXIADIE,WUFEIJIUSHITANDIZHUDI,YALIMEINEIMEDA。ZHONGGUOJINRONGZICHANDEGUZHIJIAODI,SHIYINGLVJIAODI,DUANQISHIBIJIAOHAODEBIXIANZICHAN,ZHANGQISHIBIJIAOHAODEJIAZHIZICHAN。

  图:中美股市指数比较

  数据来源:Wind

  JIBIANHAIWAISHICHANGDELIUDONGXINGFENGXIANCHUANDAOZHONGGUOJINRONGSHICHANG,YEBUHUIDUIGUONEIFANGDICHANSHICHANGZAOCHENGYINGXIANG。HUANFANGDEGOUMAILIZHUYAOLAIZIYUZICHAN,ZHONGGUODEJIATINGZICHANJIEGOUZHONG,FANGZISHIZUIZHONGYAODEZICHAN,GUPIAOZICHANZHIZHAN3%ZUOYOU。ZHONGGUOJIATINGBUHUINAMAIFANGDEQIANYONGLAICHAOGU,YEBUHUIYINWEIGUPIAODIELEJIUMAIBUQIFANG。

  图:中美家庭债资产结构比较

  数据来源:贝壳研究院整理

  FANGDICHANJIAOYISHIGEZIFABIHUAN,MAIFANGDEYUANYINZHUYAOSHIZIZHUHEGAISHAN,HUANFANGXUQIUYESHIYOUZISHENZHENSHIXUQIUSUOJUEDING,QIEHUANFANGDUIRONGZIDEYILAIDUBUDA。GENJUBEIQIAOCHENGJIAOSHUJU,ZAISHIYONGDAIKUANGOUFANGDEKEHUZHONG,GOUFANGZONGJIAYUEGAO,SHIYONGDAIKUANDEBILIHEDAIKUANCHENGSHUYUEDI。

  图:北京二手房成交中不同总价段房源贷款成交占比

  数据来源:贝壳研究院

  CONGLISHISHANGKAN,HEFANGSHIDEBIAOXIANMEIYOUZHIJIEGUANLIAN。2015NIANZHONGGUOGUPIAOSHICHANGDIMI,DANFANGDICHANSHICHANGWANQUANBUSHOUYINGXIANG。2016NIANYEYOUJICIRONGDUAN,FANGDICHANSHICHANGFANERYILUGAOZHANG。ZAIZHONGGUO,FANGDICHANSHICHANGDEWENDINGXING、SHOUYIXINGDOUYUANYUANCHAOGUOGUSHI,YOUQISHIHEXINCHENGSHIDEFANGJIAWENDINGXINGGAO。

  图:2015年以来中国股市和房价比较

 

  数据来源:Wind、国家统计局

  图:北京二手房年度成交均价走势

  数据来源:贝壳研究院

  二、全球经济危机抑制国内购房需求释放,但不会改变总量

  RUOHAIWAIJINRONGSHICHANGDEFENGXIANQUANMIANBAOFAXINGCHENGQUANQIUJINGJIWEIJI,JIUHUITONGGUOYINGXIANGZHONGGUOCHUKOULAIYINGXIANGJIUYEHESHOURU。SHOUCIGOUFANGZHEYINSHOURUJIANSHAOERWUFARUSHI,DAOZHIHUANFANGLIANTIAOYENANYIQIDONG。SHOURUXIAOYINGHUIDAOZHIGUONEIGOUFANGXUQIUZENGSUXIAJIANG,DANZONGTIDEGUIMORENGRANBIJIAODA。DANGQIANGUONEIFANGDICHANSHICHANGDEJIAOYIEYIJINGDADAO21.8WANYI,JIBIANXIAJIANG20%,YERENGRANHUIBAOCHI17WANYIDEGUIMO。QIAN2YUE,QUANGUOFANGDICHANXIAOSHOUEXIAJIANG34.7%,SUIZHEGUONEIZHUBUHUIFU,WEILAIJIANGFUHUISHOUZHAI。

  图:中国商品房销售额及增速(%)

 

  数据来源:国家统计局

  RUGUOQUANQIUJINGJIXIANRUJIAOZHANGQIDESHUAITUI,KENENGHUIDAOZHIJIATINGZHAIWUFENGXIAN,DANZHONGGUOJIATINGDEZICHANFUZHAIBIAOGENGJIAWENJIAN。DIYI,YU棋牌类游戏 BIJIAO,ZHONGGUOJIATINGDEFUZHAILVDIYU棋牌类游戏 ,CHUXULVGAOYU棋牌类游戏 。ZHONGGUODEJUMINGANGGANLVWEI52%ZUOYOU,YUANDIYU棋牌类游戏 DENGFADAJINGJITI70%DESHUIPING。2017NIANYILAIJIANGGANGGANSHIDEJUMINGANGGANLVZENGSUFANGHUAN。DIER,ZHONGGUOJIATINGZHUFANGZICHANZHANBIGAODA60-70%,FUZHAIZHONGZHUFANGANJIEDAIKUANZHANBIDA54.6%(2019NIANSHUJU),ZHIYAOGUONEIFANGJIAWENDING,JIUBUHUICHUXIANJIATINGZICHANFUZHAIBIAOSHUAITUI。DISAN,ZHONGGUOJUMINZHUFANGANJIEDAIKUANSHOUFUBILIZAI30%ZUOYOU,JINGGUOZHEIJINIANDEJIANGGANGGAN,DUIYUFANGJIABODONGDEDIKANGNENGLIJIAOQIANG。JIBIANCHUXIANSHAOSHURENQUNYINSHIYE、SHOURUXIAJIANGWUFAHAIDAI,ZHONGGUODEYINXINGYEHUIJIJIZUOHAOYANQIHAIKUANDENGCHULI,BUHUIRENQIFAZHANCHENGZHAIWUWEIJI。DISI,ZHONGGUODACHENGSHIDETUDIGONGYINGRENGRANBAOCHIJINSUO,CHAODACHENGSHIFANGZHICHENGSHIGUODUKAIFAXIANZHIZHUFANGTUDIGONGYING,ZHUFANGDEXIQUEXINGRENGRANBAOCHI。

  图:2018年中美居民负债率和储蓄率比较

  数据来源:负债率是国际清算银行计算的居民杠杆率,储蓄率是国际组织测算。

  图:2015年以来北京链家二手房购房客贷款占比及贷款成数变化

  数据来源:贝壳研究院

  图23:2018年居民部门杠杆率[ 居民杠杆率=住户部门贷款余额/GDP]

  数据来源:国际清算银行

  DANSHI,GUOWAIJINGJIWEIJIDUIGUONEIYINGXIANGDELIANTIAOBIJIAOZHANG,DUANQIYINGXIANGBUDA。ZHONGGUOKEYITONGGUOKUODAGUONEITOUZIHEXIAOFEIXUQIULAIDUICHONGWAIXUJIANSHAODEYINGXIANG。JINNIANYILAIZHONGYANGCHUTAILEYIXILIEWENTOUZIZHENGCE,JIAKUAITUIJINGUOJIAGUIHUAYIMINGQUEDEZHONGDAGONGCHENGHEJICHUSHESHIJIANSHE,JIADAGONGGONGWEISHENG、YINGJIWUZIBAOZHANGLINGYUTOUZI,JIAKUAIWANGLUO、SHUJUZHONGXINDENGXINXINGJICHUSHESHIJIANSHEJINDU。CAIZHENGJINRONGFANGMIAN,JIADADIFANGZHUANXIANGZHAIFAXINGLIDU,1—2YUEFENYIXIAFAXINZENGDIFANGZHENGFUZHUANXIANGZHAI9498YIYUAN,BIQUNIANTONGQIZENGJIA6420YIYUAN。

  三、国内市场潜力巨大,政策储备丰富,市场预期向好

  DIYI,ZHONGGUOBEIYIZHIDEGOUFANGXUQIURENGRANHENDA。YI、ERXIANDEGOUFANGXUQIURENGRANCUNZAI。CONGLIANJIAZHONGDIANYIERXIANCHENGSHIDEXINZENGKEYUANLAIKAN,CHUNJIEJIAQIJIESHUHOUXINZENGXUQIUKAISHIHUISHENG,QIESUIZHEYIQINGDEJIANRUO,3YUEXINZENGKEYUANLIANGZENGZHANGSUDUJIAKUAI。YIQINGYINGXIANGXIA,DAMIANJIGAISHANXINGHUANFANGXUQIUBEIJIFA。CONGXINZENGFANGYUANGUANZHULIANGLAIKAN,140PINGYISHANGDEDAMIANJIFANGWUGUANZHUZHANBIYUJINQITISHENGMINGXIAN,MIANJIGAISHANXUQIUJIANGZAIYIQINGJIESHUHOUSHIFANG。

  图:重点17城[ 成都新增客源变化受业务变化影响较大,故剔除。]链家新增房源与客源总量周度变化

 

  数据来源:贝壳研究院

  图:链家重点18城新增房源关注量中140平以上房屋占比

 

  数据来源:贝壳研究院

  DIER,ZHONGGUOJINRONGTIAOJIANBIQUNIANKUANSONG。2020NIANYILAI,YISHISHILIANGCIJIANGZHUN,2YUE1NIANQILPRXIAJIANG10GEJIDIAN,DANGQIANLILVSHUIPINGDIYUQUNIAN。ERQIEZAIQUANQIUJIANGXICHAOXIA,WOGUOLILVRENGYOUXIAJIANGKONGJIAN。

  图:中美利率水平比较

  数据来源:Wind

  DISAN,ZHONGGUOFANGDICHANZHENGCEGONGJUHAIYOUHENDUO。BENSHENWOGUODACHENGSHIYIJINGJINGLILESANNIANSHIJIANDEXIANGOU,YIBUFENGOUFANGXUQIUBEIGOUFANGZIZHIDANGZAIMENWAI,DACHENGSHIXIANGOUYIDANFANGKAI,BIANHUIYINFASHICHANGHUISHENG。WEILEYINGDUIXIAXINGYALI,FANGDICHANDIAOKONGYEHUISHIDANGFANGSONG,GULIZHENGCHANGDEHUANFANGGAISHANDENGHELIXIAOFEIXUQIU。ZHENGFUZAIJINRONG、SHUISHOUDENGFANGMIANRENGRANYOUDALIANGDEZHENGCECHUBEI。

  CONGDANGQIANDESHICHANGXINGSHIKAN,SHICHANGFANDANDELIDUBIJIAODA。3YUE9RIZHI15RI(XIACHENGSHANGZHOU)LIANJIA18CHENGERSHOUFANGSHICHANGCHENGJIAOLIANGJIXUKUAISUHUISHENG,HUANBIZENGJIA64%,CHENGJIAOLIANGYIJINGHUIFUZHIQUNIAN12YUEZHOUJUNSHUIPINGDE87.3%,SHICHANGHUISHENGJIAOKUAI。FENCHENGSHILAIKAN,18GECHENGSHIZHONGYOU7GECHENGSHICHENGJIAOLIANGHUIFUCHAOGUOQUNIAN12YUEZHOUJUNCHENGJIAOLIANG。QIZHONGSHANGHAI、JINAN、NANJING、DALIANSIGECHENGSHIDEHUIFUCHENGDUBIJIAOGAO,YIJINGHUIFUZHI12YUEZHOUJUNSHUIPINGDE143.7%、127.5%、119.3%YU112.6%。ERQIE,MAIMAISHUANGFANGRUSHIYIYUANZENGQIANGMINGXIAN,XINZENGFANGKEYUANJUNYIJINGHUIFUCHAOGUOQUNIAN12YUEFENZHOUJUNPINGJUNSHUIPING。

  图:重点18城链家二手房实时成交总量周度走势

  数据来源:贝壳研究院

  ZONGSHANG,WOMENRENWEIHAIWAIJINRONGSHICHANGDEFENGXIANKENENGDUIBUFENJINGWAISHANGSHIFANGQIZAOCHENGCHONGJI,DANDUIGUONEIGOUFANGXUQIUDEYINGXIANGBIJIAOXIAO,GUONEIZHUFANGFANERHUICHENGWEIBIXIANZICHANERSHOUDAOXIAOFEIZHEGUANZHU。

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