棋牌类游戏

任泽平:做好应对全球金融危机的准备!启动新基建 欧美经济衰退影响更深远

1评论 2020-03-20 00:18:30 来源:泽平宏观 游资是怎么抓涨停的?

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  全球疫情爆发之下,经济增速预期大幅放缓,引发人们对经济衰退的担忧。罕见地在半个月的时间里两次大举降息,在此背景下,有关中国宏观政策应如何发力的声音渐大渐杂,中国经济如何稳增长成为市场关切。金融市场震荡加剧,美股四次触发熔断,回吐自2017年特朗普就职以来录得的所有涨幅,进入技术性熊市,A股何去何从,维护金融稳定任务艰巨。

  针对近期的热点问题,中国专访了经济学家,任泽平近期倡导“新基建”、提醒“我们正站在全球金融危机的边缘”,引起业内广泛讨论和资本市场较大反应,他表示,疫情对全球经济影响程度取决于持续时间和扩散范围,虽然中国战“疫”初步胜利,但需防范二次输入风险,做好应对全球金融危机和经济衰退的准备。

  RENZEPINGZHICHU,QUANNIANZHONGGUODEJINGJIZENGSUMUBIAOKEYISHIDANGFANGKUAN,TONGGUOXINJIJIAN、JIANSHUIDENGKUODANEIXUDEFANGSHIYINGDUIYIQINGHEWAIWEIYINGXIANGDECHONGJI,FANGZHIJINGJIYUNXINGHUACHUHELIQUJIAN。ZUIJINDESHICHANGZHENDANGSHIDUIWAIWEISHICHANGDEDANXIN,GUSHISHIJINGJIXINXIN、JINGJIYUQIDEQINGYUBIAO,ZHONGGUOJINGJIRENXINGHENZU,QIANLIHAIMEIYOUWANQUANSHIFANGCHULAI。

  金融危机是否到来

  QUANSHANGZHONGGUOJIZHE:QUANQIUYIQINGBAOFAZHIXIA,JINGJIZENGSUYUQIDAFUFANGHUAN,GUSHIDAFUZHENDANG,ZAIGUOQUSANZHOUNEIMEIGUBAODIE,LEIJIDIEFUCHAOGUO30%,DUOGEGUOJIAGUSHIPINPINCHUFARONGDUAN,QUANQIUJINRONGWEIJISHIFOUDAOLAI?

  任泽平:美股、债券、商品甚至都在抛售加剧,说明流动性危机——金融危机的前兆已经出现,要做好应对金融危机的准备,疫情全球大流行只是导火索,根源是全球经济、金融、社会的脆弱性。2008年国际金融危机至今,12年过去了,棋牌类游戏 、棋牌游戏排行主要靠量化宽松和超低利率,导致资产价格泡沫、债务杠杆上升、居民财富差距拉大、社会撕裂、政治观点激化、贸易保护主义盛行。

  棋牌类游戏 JICHUDELIANGHUAKUANSONGZHENGCEHELIANGCIJIANGXI,YIJIZHENGZAIYUNNIANGDEWANYICIJIJIHUA,SHUOMINGYIJINGYISHIDAOLE棋牌类游戏 XIANRULELIUDONGXINGWEIJIZHONG。MEILIANCHUZHANGQIKUANSONGDEHUOBIZHENGCECUISHENGLEYANXUJIN11NIANDESHISHANGZUIZHANGNIUSHI,DANSHIJISHANG,KANSIXINXINXIANGRONGDEGUSHIZOUGAOBEIHOUYOUZHEJIDADEFENGXIAN,JINRONGYOUXIDUIGAOLEMEIGUPAOMOHEWU,HUOBICHAOFA、TOUZIZHETONGZHIHUAGANGGANJIAOYIXINGWEI、FAZHAIGUPIAOSHIMEIGUZHANGNIUDEZHONGYAOYUANYIN,XIANZAIYINLEYIJINGTINGZHI,YOUXIYIJINGJIESHU,ZAISHICHANGXIADIESHIPAOMOBEICIPOYUNZANGZHEJUDAFENGXIAN。

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  SANSHIQIYEMUQIANXIANRULELIUDONGXINGWEIJI,QIYEDEGAOSHOUYIZHAIZAIMUQIANDESHICHANGHUANJINGXIAHENNANFACHUQU,JIAZHIYIQINGYINSUYINGXIANGQIYESHOURUTINGBAI,QIYEXIANJINLIUMIANLINDUANLIEDEFENGXIAN,ZHEIDOUSHICIQIANYIXILIEKUANSONGZHENGCEREDEHUO,棋牌类游戏 MUQIANDEDASHUIMANGUANWUYIYU棋牌类游戏 YINZHENZHIKE,SHIZIFEIWUGONGZHIJU,YEJIANGQUANQIUJINGJILAJINLEJINRONGWEIJIDEXUANWO。

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  SHIJISHANG,LIUJI棋牌类游戏 DESHIJIANBUSUANCHONGYU,ZHENGQUEDEYINGDUIFANGSHISHIJINKUAIKONGZHIYIQING,YIDUANQIDAIJIAHUANQUZHANGQISHENGLI,RANHOUYICAIZHENGZHENGCEWEIZHU、HUOBIZHENGCEWEIFULAIWENZENGZHANG。

  中国该如何应对

  QUANSHANGZHONGGUOJIZHE:RUHEKANDAIJINQIZHONGGUODEYIXILIEJUCUO?ZHEICIYIQINGJIWOMENDAILAILESHENME?

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  FANZHI,MEILIANCHUDEDASHUIMANGUAN,DUANQIKENENGHUIJIEJUEJINGJIYISHIDEKUNJU,DANZHANGQILAIKAN,MAIXIALEZHUDUOYINHUAN,HUOBICHAOFADAOZHIZHAIWUGUOGAO、GUSHIPAOMODUIQI、CAIFUCHAJUJINYIBULADA,ZHEIDOUJIANGXUERUOZHIZAOYEDEJICHU,RANGGUODUXIAOFEIMOSHIZOUDEYUELAIYUEYUAN。ZAIDANGQIANDEGUANJIANSHIDIAN,WOMENXUYAOBAWODESHI,ZAIWEIXIANHEKONGHUANGZHONGZHAODAOJIYU,JIECIJIHUIKUODAGAIGEKAIFANG,JIANSHEDUOCENGCIZIBENSHICHANG,GAISHANSHOURUFENPEIHESHEHUIZHILI,YIDANZHEIXIEJUCUOLUOSHIDAOWEI,GUOYUNJIULAILE。

  QUANSHANGZHONGGUOJIZHE:YAOCAIQUNAXIEJUCUOLAIQUANMIANYINGDUIYIQINGHEWAIWEIYINSUDUIZHONGGUOJINGJIDAILAIDEYINGXIANG?

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  DIER,ZENGJIAZHUANXIANGZHAIEDU,CONG2019NIANDE2.15WANYISHANGDIAOZHI3.5WANYI。ZHONGDIANTOUXIANGJIJIAN,YOUQIXINJIJIAN,CHENGSHUXIAOYING、WAIBUXIAOYINGHEDAIDONGXIAOYINGQIANG。

  第三,优化减税降费方式,从当前主要针对增值税的减税格局转为降低费率和企业所得税税率,提升企业获得感,真正让企业和(行情603883,)得实惠。

  DISI,ZENGJIAGUOYOUQIYELIRUNSHANGJIAOBILI,BIMIANCAIZHENGSHOURUZENGSUXIAXINGBEIJINGXIADIFANGZHENGFUCHUXIAN“LUANSHOUFEI”DENGEHUAYINGSHANGHUANJINGDEXINGWEI。

  DIWU,XUEJIANMINSHENGSHEBAOZHIWAIDEKAIZHI,JINGJIANJIGOURENYUAN,YOUHUAZHICHUJIEGOU,TIGAOCAIZHENGZHICHUXIAOLV。

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  TONGSHI,JINNIANLIANGHUIBAOGAOZHONG,QUANNIANZHONGGUODEJINGJIZENGSUKEYISHIDANGFANGKUANZAIYIGEJIAODADEQUJIANNEI,SHISHIQIDONG“XINJIJIAN”。

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  为何要启动新基建

  QUANSHANGZHONGGUOJIZHE:NINTICHUYAOKUODANEIXU,QIDONGXINJIJIAN,“XIN”ZAINALI?

  任泽平:要实现全年两个翻番的小康目标,中国经济就要在三四季度发力,目前外需受限,能够有所作为的就是要扩大内需,避免出现经济危机和失业率上升的情况。过往经验告诉我们,疫情对消费的冲击比对生产的冲击更大,旅游、住宿、酒店等消费大项的恢复往往比生产要慢一个季度,企业很快就能开工,但开工后消费跟不上,外需不给力,就容易造成库存积压和企业经营压力。当前最简单有效的办法就是新基建,这包括了、、数据中心、互联网等科技创新领域基础设施,以及教育、医疗、社保等民生领域基础设施。

  QUBIEYULAOJIJIAN,XINJIJIANYOUZHEXINWEILAIHEXINDEFAZHANLINIAN,GONGYOUWU“XIN”:

  YISHIXINDELINGYU。DIAOZHENGTOUZILINGYU,ZAIBUQITIELU、GONGLU、GUIDAOJIAOTONGDENGCHUANTONGJIJIANDEJICHUSHANGDALIFAZHAN5G、、RENGONGZHINENG、GONGYEHULIANWANG、、CHENGJIGAOSUTIELUHECHENGJIGUIDAOJIAOTONG、ZHONGXIN、、JIAOYU、YILIAODENGXINXINGJIJIAN。YIGAIGECHUANGXINWENZENGZHANG,FAZHANCHUANGXINXINGCHANYE,PEIYUXINDEJINGJIZENGZHANGDIAN。

  ERSHIXINDEDIQU。JICHUSHESHIJIANSHEZUIZHONGSHIWEIRENKOUHECHANYEFUWUDE。2019NIANZHONGGUOCHENGZHENHUALVWEI60.6%,ERFADAGUOJIAPINGJUNYUE80%,ZHONGGUOHAIYOUHENDAKONGJIAN,DANCHENGZHENHUADERENKOUJIANGGENGDUOJUJIDAOCHENGSHIQUNDOUSHIQUAN。WOMENYUCE,DAO2030NIANZHONGGUOCHENGZHENHUALVDA71%SHI,XINZENG2YICHENGZHENRENKOUDE80%JIANGJIZHONGZAI19GECHENGSHIQUN,60%JIANGZAIZHANGSANJIAO、、DENG7GECHENGSHIQUN。WEILAISHANGSHUDIQUDEGUIDAOJIAOTONG、CHENGJITIELU、JIAOYU、YILIAO、5GDENGJICHUSHESHIJIANGMIANLINYANZHONGDUANQUE,ZAISHANGSHUDIQUJINXINGSHIDUCHAOQIANDEJICHUSHESHIJIANSHENENGGOUZUIDAHUAJINGJISHEHUIXIAOYI。DUIRENKOULIURUDIQU,YAOSHIDANGFANGSONGDIFANGZHAIWUYAOQIU,BUGAOZHONGSHENZHUIZEZHI,YITUIJINDAGUIMOJIJIAN;DANDUIRENKOULIUCHUDIQU,YAOQUBIEDUIDAI,BIMIANYINDAGUIMOJIJIANZAOCHENGMINGXIANLANGFEI。

  SANSHIXINDEZHUTI。YAOJINYIBUFANGJIANLINGYUDESHICHANGZHUNRU,KUODATOUZIZHUTI,YOUQISHIYOUYIDINGSHOUYIDEXIANGMUYAODUIMINJIANZIBENYISHITONGREN。SHISHISHANGHUAWEI、、TENGXUNDENGQIYEYIJINGDALITOURUXINJIJIAN。

  SISHIXINDEFANGSHI。JIJIANTOUZIFANGSHISHANGYAOGUIFANBINGTUIDONGP,BIMIANMINGGUSHIZHAIDENG,YINJINSIRENZIBENTIGAOXIAOLV,TUOKUANRONGZILAIYUAN。XINJIJIANXUYAOXINDEPEITAOZHIDUBIANGE,XINJIJIANDADUOSHUYUXINJISHUXINCHANYE,XUYAOBUTONGYUJIUJIJIANDECAIZHENG、JINRONG、CHANYEDENGPEITAOZHIDUZHICHENG。CAIZHENGZHENGCEFANGMIAN,YANFAZHICHUJIAJIKOUCHU,GAOXINJISHUQIYEDISHUILV;HUOBIJINRONGZHENGCEFANGMIAN,ZAIDIXIRONGZI、ZHUANXIANGDAIKUAN、DUOCENGCIZIBENSHICHANG、BINGGOU、IPO、FAZHAIDENGFANGMIANJIYUZHICHI;CHANYEZHENGCEFANGMIAN,NARUDAOGUOJIAZHANLVEHEGEDIJINGJISHEHUIFAZHANGUIHUAZHONG。

  WUSHIXINDENEIHAN。CHULEYINGDE“XINJIJIAN”,YINGGAIHAIBAOKUORUANDE“XINJIJIAN”。JINNIANWOGUOJINGJISHEHUILINGYU“YI”QINGPINFA,XIANHOUZAOYU2015NIANGUZAI、2018NIANZHONGMEIMAOYIMOCA、2019NIANMINYINGJINGJILICHANGLUN、ZHUJIADAZHANG、2020NIANXINGUANYIQINGDENGZHONGDATIAOZHAN。ZAIKANDAOWOGUOGONGJICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGEQUDEJIJICHENGXIAO,JINGJISHEHUIFAZHANQUSHIXIANGHAODETONGSHI,YEYAOKANDAOCHUYIXIEZHENGCEYIDAOQIECENGCENGJIAMA、WUSHANGMINQIZHONGXIAOQIYE、CUOSHANGDIFANGJIJIXING、BUFENLINGYUGAIGEJINCHENGHUANMAN、MINSHENGTOURUBUZU、KEJICHUANGXINDUANBAN、YULUNJIANDUQUEWEI、SHEHUIZHILIWUXUDENGWENTI。BAOLUCHUDEWENTIFANYINGLESHENCENGCITIZHIJIZHIGAIGEDEJINPOXINGTISHENG。

  YINGJIAQIANGRUANDE“XINJIJIAN”:JIAQIANGYULUNJIANDUHEXINXIGONGKAITOUMING、JIANLI《CHUISHAORENBAOHUFAAN》、BUQIYILIAODUANBANGAIGEYILIAOTIZHI、JIAQIANGYINGJIYILIAOTIXIJIANSHE、JIADAZHISHICHANQUANBAOHULIDU、GAISHANYINGSHANGHUANJING、DAFUJIANSHUIJIANGFEIYOUQISHEBAOJIAOFEIFEILVHEQIYESUODESHUI、LUOSHIJINGZHENGZHONGXING、JIANLIJUZHUDAOXIANGDEXINZHUFANGZHIDUHEZHANGXIAOJIZHI、JIANLIXINJILIJIZHIDIAODONGDIFANGZHENGFUHEQIYEJIAJIJIXINGDENG。

  SHIQINGYUEDAOHOUMIAN,SHICHANGCAIHUIYUENENGRENSHIDAOWOMENTICHUDEXINJIJIAN、QUANQIUJINRONGWEIJIDEYIYI。ZHEIXIENIANWOMENXITONGGENZONGYANJIULEQUANQIULICIDAWEIJIDEGENYUAN、CHUANDAOLUJING、YINGXIANGJIZHIHEYINGDUICELVE,LISHIBUHUIZHONGFUZIJI,DANYAZHEXIANGSIDEYUNJIAO,BEIHOUSHENCENGCIDELUOJIJIZHISHIXIANGTONGDE

  新基建会不会成为四万亿重来

  QUANSHANGZHONGGUOJIZHE:DUIYUXINJIJIAN,SHICHANGSHANGYOUBUTONGDESHENGYIN,YOURENRENWEIXINJIJIANDEGUODUCIJIHUICHENGWEIJINGJIFAZHANGUOCHENGZHONGDEBUQUEDINGYINSU。

  RENZEPING:DUIYUXINJIJIAN,BUSHAOZHUANJIAXUEZHEZHENGYIHENDA,ZHEIZHONGTAOLUNSHIKEGUANLIXINGDE。DANGUOQUYIDUANSHIJIAN,ZHONGGUOZIBENSHICHANGDETOUZIZHEWEIXINJIJIANTOULEZANCHENGPIAO,ZHONGYANGDIFANGYEDUOCIDIANMINGYAOFALIXINJIAN,YIJINGZAIZHENGYIZHONGXINGCHENGLEGONGSHI。

  BUSHAORENDANXINXINJIJIANHUICHENGWEISIWANYI,WOYEDUOCIQIANGDIAO,XINJIJIANYAOFANGZHI“XINPINGZHUANGJIUJIU”“ZHONGZOULAOLU”“SIWANYIZHONGLAI”,BIMIANLUNWEIYOUYICICHUNCUIHUOBICHAOFADEYINZHENZHIKE。

  HUIWANGSIWANYITUICHUZHISHI,KUODANEIXUSHIDUIDE,DANWENTISHICHUSHOUTAIKUAITAIZHONG,JIZHONGGUOJINGJIZHANGQIFAZHANDAILAILEHENDUODEFUDANHEDAIJIA,YETUIGAOLEZICHANJIAGEPAOMO,YINFALECHANNENGGUOSHENG,SHIXIANGDANGNIANRUOYOUJIEZOU、YOUGUIHUADETUICHUSIWANYI,SHIFOUJIEGUOHUIYOUSUOBUTONG。

  可以参考1998年亚洲金融(娓偂00662)危机和特大洪水灾害期间实施的以增发长期建设为主的持续温和的积极财政政策,平均每年增发1000亿元国债,七年间共发行约9000亿元,没有进行短期大规模的强刺激,既能稳增长稳就业,也避免了对市场预期和微观主体的过度干预。此次搞新基建,就是要做好科学规划,把握好改革节奏和力度,不能短期大规模刺激,但当前的经济现状也不能不刺激。

  TEBIEXUYAOSHUOMINGDESHI,JICHUSHESHIJIANSHEBUNENGGUANGSUANDUANQIZHANG,BIRUXIUGAOSULU,RUOGUANGKANZHANGMIANSHOUFEIYINGSHOU,KENDINGSHIKUISUNDE,DANTATIGAOLEYUNSHUXIAOLV,ZHULILEDANGDIQUNZHONGDESHENGHUOCHUXING,JIANGDILEQIYEDEYUNSHUCHENGBEN,TIGAOLEZHONGGUOZHIZAOYEDEQIANGDAJINGZHENGLI,ZHEIZHONGWAIBUXIAOYISHIZHANGMIANYINGSHOUWUFATONGJIDE。WOMENFALIXINJIJIAN,KEYICHAOQIANBUJU5G、RENGONGZHINENGDENG,DUIYUZHONGGUOJINGJIZHANGQIFAZHANYOUHAOCHU,WOGUOSHIDUOGELINGYUJICHUSHESHICHAOQIANBUJUDESHOUYIZHE,BIRUHULIANWANG,BIRUGAOTIEDENG,LINGXIANQUANQIUSHIXIANLECHAOCHE。YOUQIDANGQIANDAZONGSHANGPINBAODIE,XIACUO,WOMENZAICISHIFAZHANXINJIJIAN,CHENGBENDI,XIAOGUOHAO,HELEBUWEI。

  QUANSHANGZHONGGUOJIZHE:JIANSHUIJIANGFEI、YIQINGDENGYINSUDAOZHIQIYEYINGLIZHUANGKUANGEHUA,GUOJIASHUISHOUSHOURUJIANSHAO,CAIZHENGSHOURUZHENGTIDAFUXIAJIANG,GANGXINGZHICHUQUEZAIZENGJIA,BIRUFANGKONGYIQING,GAOXINJIJIAN,QIANCONGNALILAI?

  RENZEPING:DEQUE,DAJIADANXINXIANZAICAIZHENGDEYALIHENDA,DIFANGCAIZHENG,YOUQIQUNIANDOUSHIFUZENGZHANG,RUBUFUCHU。MEIYOUQIANZENMETOUJICHUSHESHI?WOYOUGEJIANYI,YAOTUPOCHIZILV,CAIZHENGCHIZIDAO3.5%、4%DOUMEIYOUGUANXI,DANWOJUEDEBUSHIYIGESHUDEGAINIAN,ERSHIYIZHONGLINIAN,JIUJINGSHIYAOBAOCAIZHENGHAISHIBAOZENGZHANG。

  ZHENGFUYAODANGZHENGGEGUOMINJINGJISHEHUIFAZHANDEDAJIA,ERBUSHICAIZHENGDEXIAOJIA。RUGUOJINGJIBUHAODESHIHOU,HAIYAOBAOZHENGZIJICAIZHENGDEPINGHENG,YIDINGHUISHOUGUOTOUDESHUI,SHENZHIGEZHONGFEISHUISHOURU。DANYIDINGXUYAOLIQINGDESHI,YIGUOCAIZHENGSHIJIANLIZAIZISHENJINGJISHILIJICHUZHISHANGDE,MUDEJIUSHIYAOYUNPINGJINGJIBODONG,WEIQIYEHEJUMINFUWU,ZHIYAOZHONGGUOJINGJIFANRONGFAZHAN,RENMINANJULEYE,JIUBUCHOUCAIZHENG。CAIZHENGBUSHICHUNAHEHUIJI,SHIGONGGONGZHENGCE,SUANDAZHANGBUSUANXIAOZHANG。

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